Abstract

In most Canadian provinces the forest industry has begun to address historical resources concerns within their regular planning and operational guidelines. However, methods of achieving compliance to general historical resource protection regulations vary between jurisdictions and between forestry companies. In a previous paper, Gibson et. al. described a set of heritage management protocols called CRIMP (Cultural Resources Impact Management Planning) that consisted of custom GIS historical databases, heritage potential models, industrial impact models and calculating tools that assisted forestry-related and other industrial managers to plan proposed land developments. The tools were instrumental in minimizing potential impact to historical resources sites and were found to reduce associated field survey costs related to regulatory compliance requirements substantially.The CRIMP Management Tools were originally developed as part of a stand-alone historical management process, to be used as part of both short and long-term corporate land planning operations. Current research is focused on integrating this process and its associated tools within a more comprehensive forecasting methodology that incorporates environmental and social data and land development planning into an expert system that can help predict the effects of forestry and other kinds of developments on a landscape for hundreds of years into the future. The system can be used to plan developments on a 'what it' basis, dynamically changing planning scenarios as input variables such as heritage potential or site location are modified over time.This paper will review the different heritage potential models, thematic historical data and projected industrial impact information produced to implement such a system for the Duck Mountain region in West Central Manitoba, Alternative land management planning scenarios for the present and ensuing decades will then be explored to highlight the potential of the system for long term heritage management.